Forecasters Believe Area Drought Conditions Have Chance to Ease

By BOB PALMER
Jimplecute News Editor

JEFFERSON – A forecaster with the National Weather Service in Shreveport sees a chance drought conditions in Northeast Texas could lessen, but it is not certain. “What I can tell you based on personal experience,” Aaron Davis told the Jimplecute, “is that in the transition seasons we get a lot more Gulf moisture.”

Officially, the outlook appears a muddle of average. “The temperatures look like about a 50 percent chance of above average months for fall and winter months for northeast Texas,” Davis said. “They call for equal chances for precipitation.”

Davis explained an “equal chance” means the amount of rain could be normal, above normal or below normal. Looking ahead to the first weekend of November, deer hunters should expect normal conditions.

“Typically we see average high temperatures during the first week of November in low 70s with average overnight temperatures in the upper 40s,” Davis said. The average precipitation for this area during November is 4.5 inches.

“Fronts bring cooler weather and an increased chance of precipitation,” Davis said. Severe drought conditions across the region still concern forecasters. Jason Hansford, Lead Forecaster, climate focal point at NWS Shreveport, developed the drought report for the area.

“After observing much above normal rainfall over the Four State Region through the first six months of 2019, much below normal rainfall has fallen over portions of the area since July. In addition, much above normal temperatures observed during August and September have only enhanced the developing flash drought, especially across portions of East Texas, extreme Southern Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana,” Hansford stated… (a subscription to the Jimplecute is required to continue reading this article).

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